Jump to content

That CGC Pricing Question


Recommended Posts

In the Livestream today, Pete brought up the question of an algorithm or multiplier for pricing on CGC books.  At least that was the gist of what I got while trying to tune in at work.  I'm not certain that there is any formula that will ever apply across the board.  My entry into the slabbed book realm was through CGC Signature series.  The trouble is that slabbing an issue may affect the value of a relatively modern book immensely but not so much for an older book unless you're getting in the 9.0 and above range.  Then you need to factor in the signatures.  A great example is in my collection.  I have a copy of Fear Agent: The Last Goodbye #1 Jack Davis variant cover in CGC 9.9 signed by Jack Davis.  A 9.9 is already a premium and in many cases, the signature adds even more value.  The trouble is the signer.  I feel certain that a 9.9 signed by Jack Davis will bring significantly more than one signed by Tony Moore (no disrespect intended, Mr. Moore) because of Davis' status as an artist and that fact that he is not here to sign any more books.  

It can get even weirder.  Stan Lee was a timid signer for a very long time.  I don't think it is news to anyone that in the last few years of his life, he signed like a machine.  Especially in the short time after he passed away, roughly one in three CGC SS books on eBay had Stan Lee in their description  Just now, CGC SS bring up over 17,000 books while CGC SS Stan Lee brings up over 1,700 books, so one in ten is signed by "The Man."  Currently on MySlabbedComics.com, there are 1179 Stan Lee signed books the next closest signer is Todd McFarlane at 353.  That's less than a third!  Frank Miller is next with 286 and he used to be notoriously hard to obtain.  

Keys never play by the rules on pricing, that's not news .  It only gets worse when slabbing them.  New Mutants #98 (first Deadpool) in CGC 9.8 will have a significantly larger multiplier than Amazing Spider-Man (2014) #4 (first Silk) but lower than Fantastic Four #1.  

Slabbing is a bizarre niche market.  When I pulled together Frank Miller's Ronin years ago, #6 cost me around $250 (I think).  At the time, it was the only one in the census, there are 15 now.  I admittedly went high on it but it would complete my 9.8 run of the series.  If I hadn't already had the other 5, I would never have considered paying more than $50 or so.  The book isn't particularly rare, but it is a little more rare in high grade.  

All of this to say what Pete expressed so well in the Livestream.  You could probably come up with some kind of algorithm if you could gather data from hundreds of sources and monitor it day in and day out but that's just not possible.  I don't know that anything a simple as a multiplier could ever get close to following value on these books.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually the problem can be described in a simpler matter.
All of the points about key and/or signed issues is immaterial.
The question is what percentage increase in value should apply just for having a comic slabbed.

Note: I am not saying key/signed is not important overall, but that is already accounted for. i.e. the non-slabbed 1st appearance or a important character is already going to be priced higher then later appearances. Slabbing is not going to increase the value because of that 1st appearance any more than it already is.

If you have issue #1 first appearance priced at $100.00 issue #2 priced at $50.00, the increase in value is already there.
If both issues are slabbed and get a premium applied of 110%, they would be would be $110.00 and $55.00, respectively.
There would NOT be 110% premium for being slabbed plus a premium for being 1st appearance.

The main problem as I understood it is high value books.
If Action Comics #1 sold for $1,000,000.00, being slabbed should not blow up the premium to 2 or 3 million dollars.

So at lower prices, the plus/minus range for the percentage increase isn't all that great.
Using the same percentage on higher priced items creates a very large plus/minus range (almost to the point of being useless).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Steven L. Dasinger said:

The main problem as I understood it is high value books.
If Action Comics #1 sold for $1,000,000.00, being slabbed should not blow up the premium to 2 or 3 million dollars.

So at lower prices, the plus/minus range for the percentage increase isn't all that great.
Using the same percentage on higher priced items creates a very large plus/minus range (almost to the point of being useless).

The premium for slabbing is probably not a linear relationship.  CGC 9.8 books from one price range in their "raw" state won't necessarily get the same % bump as CGC 9.8 books from a different price range for their raw state. 

And, of course, the slabbing premium also depends on the grade.  So the "premium curve" for CGC 5.0 books might not have the same slope and/or shape as the premium curve for CGC 9.0 books.  That means you may be looking at two variables when trying to determine the CGC premium:  what is the expected price for the corresponding raw copy and what is the graded condition for that copy.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Steven L. Dasinger said:

Note: I am not saying key/signed is not important overall, but that is already accounted for. i.e. the non-slabbed 1st appearance or a important character is already going to be priced higher then later appearances. Slabbing is not going to increase the value because of that 1st appearance any more than it already is.

If you have issue #1 first appearance priced at $100.00 issue #2 priced at $50.00, the increase in value is already there.
If both issues are slabbed and get a premium applied of 110%, they would be would be $110.00 and $55.00, respectively.
There would NOT be 110% premium for being slabbed plus a premium for being 1st appearance.

The main problem as I understood it is high value books.
If Action Comics #1 sold for $1,000,000.00, being slabbed should not blow up the premium to 2 or 3 million dollars.

So at lower prices, the plus/minus range for the percentage increase isn't all that great.
Using the same percentage on higher priced items creates a very large plus/minus range (almost to the point of being useless).

Unfortunately, signed and key make big differences and throw off the curve considerably.  A 9.8 is not always, sticking with the same number here, 110% of its raw counterpart.  A 9.6 price generally drops significantly from a 9.8 but if there are only 2 9.8s of a particular book and 132 9.6s, the 9.8s might go to 300% of the raw NM price and the 9.6 now holds the 110% slot.  GI Joe #21 was a great example of this a decade or so ago.  9.6 was the highest graded copy for a long time so when a 9.8 hit the market the price went completely nuts.  Throw in a key book with a creator's signature and what was a 110% bump is now a 150% despite the grade being the same.  When we're talking CGC Signature Series, these aren't already accounted for in CB.  The publishers did not release a signed edition but with an authorized witness, it can be signed and certified.  

A great example is available on eBay right now.  Fantastic Four #48 in CGC 6.5 signed by Stan Lee sold for $6800 on February 22.  Four days later a 7.5 unsigned copy only brought $5750.  Strangely, the signed copy had off-white to white pages and the 7.5 had white pages.  As a rule, white pages command a higher price than other page qualities and prices shrink with each drop in page quality.  It can get weirder still.  The signed FF #48 had a signature in black ink in a dark area on the cover and it is an ugly Stan Lee signature.  Get a pretty signature in gold or silver in the same place and it will likely bring more.  It might still bring more even in a lower grade.  Rare signers change things too.  A Star Wars #1 CGC 9.8 signed by Harrison Ford will bring multiples of its counterpart signed by Howard Chaykin.  

All 9.0s are not created equal.  9.0 with white pages may bring $1000.  Drop to off-white and it's now $900, drop to cream pages and it might only get $750.  If there is such a thing as a 9.0 with brittle pages, it might only net the seller $350.  

The whims of the market make all the difference.  A high grade first appearance may bring 200% of the raw value while the second appearance may only command 150% of its raw counterpart.  A sixth appearance may have a classic cover or an iconic artist starting on it or worse, it was short printed and it will bring 180% of the NM price.  

To sum it all up, in the graded comics market there are many variables in standard books.  If you move into signed books, signed and remarked, signed and sketched, celebrity signers, cast signatures, and single highest graded copies and there is no computation that will ever work.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Gregory Hecht said:

The premium for slabbing is probably not a linear relationship.  CGC 9.8 books from one price range in their "raw" state won't necessarily get the same % bump as CGC 9.8 books from a different price range for their raw state. 

And, of course, the slabbing premium also depends on the grade.  So the "premium curve" for CGC 5.0 books might not have the same slope and/or shape as the premium curve for CGC 9.0 books.  That means you may be looking at two variables when trying to determine the CGC premium:  what is the expected price for the corresponding raw copy and what is the graded condition for that copy.  

You're 100% correct on the lack of linear relationship.  

To be certain we are on the same page, by "slabbing premium" do you mean the price bump the book gets for being graded?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You are missing my point. All the things you mention apply to the comic whether it is slabbed or not.
I agree that they all affect the pricing of a comic.

However, the act of slabbing doesn't multiply all of those items. There is not a premium for slabbing and being signed and 1st appearance. There is just a premium for being slabbed.

The main problem that Pete is trying to address is that a flat rate percentage when applied to any CGC (or any graded comic) doesn't give a realistic example of the pricing with vast differences in pricing.

Currently CB has a CGC 9.8 at 1200% of NM.

Take a comic as graded by CGC at 9.8
Take the same comic out of the casing.

Example 1: Low priced comic
If the un-slabbed comic sold for $100.00, the slabbed version would have a value of $1,200.00.

Example 2: High priced comic
If the un-slabbed comic sold for $1,000,000.00, the slabbed version would have a value of $12,000,000.00.

For example 1, the $1,200.00 may or may not be accurate but it is probably near correct (plus or minus a few hundred).
For example 2, the $12,000,000.00 is no where close to being an accurate representation of the price (plus or minus several hundred thousand dollars).

That is the problem being addressed.
One way I can thing of is to have different percentage of NM for various pricing ranges.
For example (just making up numbers and is not meant to represent actual values):

Between $1.00 and $999.00 have percentage of 1200%
Between $1,000.00 and $4,999.00 have have percentage of 1200%
Between $5,000.00 and $9,999.00 have have percentage of 1000%
Between $10,000.00 and $49,999.00 have have percentage of 750%
Between $50,000.00 and $99,999.99 have have percentage of 500%
Between $100,000.00 and $499,999.00 have have percentage of 250%
Between $500,000.00 and $999,999.00 have  have percentage of 175%
Between $1,000,000.00 and $1,999,999.00 have have percentage of 150%
Over $2,000,000.00 have $125%

Again, these are just 'random' numbers and are just meant to show the general idea. They are not meant to be exact numbers.

Using these numbers Example 2, at $1,000,000.00, when slabbed, would have a value of $1,500,000.00.
Still significant but not outlandish.

(And I will state this one more time. Any feature that would affect the price, would apply to the un-slabbed comic. They are important and affect the price. However, once that un-slabbed price is determined, the act of slabbing does add extra premium value beyond the act of slabbing.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Steven L. Dasinger said:

However, the act of slabbing doesn't multiply all of those items. There is not a premium for slabbing and being signed and 1st appearance. There is just a premium for being slabbed.

Yes, I agree with you on this point.  The slabbing premium doesn't get multiplied more than once because an issue is a key issue *and* valuable in its raw form.  The fact that it is valuable in its raw state is already reflective of the fact that it is a key issue.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Steven L. Dasinger said:

Take a comic as graded by CGC at 9.8
Take the same comic out of the casing.

Example 1: Low priced comic
If the un-slabbed comic sold for $100.00, the slabbed version would have a value of $1,200.00.

Example 2: High priced comic
If the un-slabbed comic sold for $1,000,000.00, the slabbed version would have a value of $12,000,000.00.

For example 1, the $1,200.00 may or may not be accurate but it is probably near correct (plus or minus a few hundred).
For example 2, the $12,000,000.00 is no where close to being an accurate representation of the price (plus or minus several hundred thousand dollars).

That is the problem being addressed.
One way I can thing of is to have different percentage of NM for various pricing ranges.
For example (just making up numbers and is not meant to represent actual values):

Between $1.00 and $999.00 have percentage of 1200%
Between $1,000.00 and $4,999.00 have have percentage of 1200%
Between $5,000.00 and $9,999.00 have have percentage of 1000%
Between $10,000.00 and $49,999.00 have have percentage of 750%
Between $50,000.00 and $99,999.99 have have percentage of 500%
Between $100,000.00 and $499,999.00 have have percentage of 250%
Between $500,000.00 and $999,999.00 have  have percentage of 175%
Between $1,000,000.00 and $1,999,999.00 have have percentage of 150%
Over $2,000,000.00 have $125%

I think that your example here is a good one.  However, I suspect that the market may be working a little bit differently for slabbed high grade issues vs. slabbed low grade issues.  

If you were to graph out the raw copy price of what would be a 9.8 comic vs. the slabbed price of a 9.8 comic, you would get a curve of a particular shape based on the % premiums that you list in your example.  

But I think that a complicating factor is that the % premiums may be different for lower grade comics (e.g, a 3.0 raw comic vs. the same 3.0 comic in a slab).  In other words, the unslabbed price might not be sufficient information to know what the slab premium should be.  I suspect that you need to know both the condition *and* the value of the unslabbed comic.  

If you were to graph out the raw copy price of what would be a 3.0 comic vs. the slabbed price of a 3.0 comic, I don't know that the curve would necessarily have the same shape as for your condition 9.8 example.  In other words, would the slabbing premium for a $5,000.00 to $9,999.00 comic in 3.0 be twice that of a $50,000.00 to $99,999.99 comic in 3.0?  My prediction* is that slabbing low value comics in low grade gives a lot less "% juice" than slabbing a more valuable comic in exactly the same low grade.  

*(from a gut sense only... I have no data to back up my prediction, I admit that I could be completely wrong)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Steven L. Dasinger said:

You are missing my point. All the things you mention apply to the comic whether it is slabbed or not.
I agree that they all affect the pricing of a comic.

However, the act of slabbing doesn't multiply all of those items. There is not a premium for slabbing and being signed and 1st appearance. There is just a premium for being slabbed.

The main problem that Pete is trying to address is that a flat rate percentage when applied to any CGC (or any graded comic) doesn't give a realistic example of the pricing with vast differences in pricing.

Currently CB has a CGC 9.8 at 1200% of NM.

Take a comic as graded by CGC at 9.8
Take the same comic out of the casing.

Example 1: Low priced comic
If the un-slabbed comic sold for $100.00, the slabbed version would have a value of $1,200.00.

Example 2: High priced comic
If the un-slabbed comic sold for $1,000,000.00, the slabbed version would have a value of $12,000,000.00.

For example 1, the $1,200.00 may or may not be accurate but it is probably near correct (plus or minus a few hundred).
For example 2, the $12,000,000.00 is no where close to being an accurate representation of the price (plus or minus several hundred thousand dollars).

That is the problem being addressed.
One way I can thing of is to have different percentage of NM for various pricing ranges.
For example (just making up numbers and is not meant to represent actual values):

Between $1.00 and $999.00 have percentage of 1200%
Between $1,000.00 and $4,999.00 have have percentage of 1200%
Between $5,000.00 and $9,999.00 have have percentage of 1000%
Between $10,000.00 and $49,999.00 have have percentage of 750%
Between $50,000.00 and $99,999.99 have have percentage of 500%
Between $100,000.00 and $499,999.00 have have percentage of 250%
Between $500,000.00 and $999,999.00 have  have percentage of 175%
Between $1,000,000.00 and $1,999,999.00 have have percentage of 150%
Over $2,000,000.00 have $125%

Again, these are just 'random' numbers and are just meant to show the general idea. They are not meant to be exact numbers.

Using these numbers Example 2, at $1,000,000.00, when slabbed, would have a value of $1,500,000.00.
Still significant but not outlandish.

(And I will state this one more time. Any feature that would affect the price, would apply to the un-slabbed comic. They are important and affect the price. However, once that un-slabbed price is determined, the act of slabbing does add extra premium value beyond the act of slabbing.)

If comics were simply being graded and slabbed, you would be right but signatures and scarcity, real or perceived, influence the price of the book.  Being a key will do it as well because keys attract buyers beyond the standard market.  Additional buyers create additional demand and the price becomes skewed.  There are collectors that won't touch a book without CGC or CBCS grading it first.  Their lack of interest in raws combined with regular collectors' interest in graded books leaves them competing for books from a smaller pool.  The end result is that a 9.8 key may be valued at 1500% of its raw counterpart while the next issue in the series only draws 900% of the raw price.  

I get the impression you don't deal much in slabbed books.  I don't intend that as an insult but rather an observation based on the attempt to create a formula for all of this.  There is no multiplier that will work.  

Let's use Dark Knight Returns #1 in CGC 9.8 as an example.  

On April 11, a copy signed and remarked by Frank Miller and Klaus Janson sold for at least $3500.   It was bought with a best offer that eBay doesn't reveal.  

On February 9, a copy signed by Miller and Janson came in at $2500

On Aprill 9, a copy signed by Miller alone brought $2078.

On March 30, an unsigned copy went for $1325

There is a raw VF-NM copy on Atomic Avenue right now for $99, I'm sorry I don't CB with me at the moment so let's use $200 as the raw NM value.  

They are all the same book in the same grade.  If you go to Mr. Miller's agent, the cost of a signature on a raw book is $50 and the cost for a book to be graded is $85.  By spending $85 and getting the book graded, the seller made an additional $600 but adding Klaus Janson's signature (I don't know his fees for certain but think he's in the $30-50 range) brought in about $1000 more for the seller.  Miller alone increased the price by 56%, Miller and Janson increased it by 88%, and sketches drove it up by 164% at a minimum.  Using the graded 9.8 price and adding signatures we go from $1325 to $1410 which is 6% for Miller.  Throw Janson in there and it goes to $1460 which is 10% higher.   The cost of the signatures is left behind by the final graded price.  Meanwhile the signed raw book might bring $300, I don't have one that has sold recently to reference.  There are two for sale on eBay now that look like terrible fakes to me, one at $400 and one starting at $70.  

Because they have strict rules for their witnesses, CGC has a solid reputation in the autograph business.  That reputation adds value to the final product beyond the cost of the upgrades.  The buyer pays for more than some ink smeared on a book, they pay for the assurance that what they are buying is genuine.  They also are paying for having the grade verified and preserved.  Unfortunately, that assurance is a sliding scale with too many variables to easily quantify.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Gregory Hecht said:

I think that your example here is a good one.  However, I suspect that the market may be working a little bit differently for slabbed high grade issues vs. slabbed low grade issues.  

If you were to graph out the raw copy price of what would be a 9.8 comic vs. the slabbed price of a 9.8 comic, you would get a curve of a particular shape based on the % premiums that you list in your example.  

But I think that a complicating factor is that the % premiums may be different for lower grade comics (e.g, a 3.0 raw comic vs. the same 3.0 comic in a slab).  In other words, the unslabbed price might not be sufficient information to know what the slab premium should be.  I suspect that you need to know both the condition *and* the value of the unslabbed comic.  

If you were to graph out the raw copy price of what would be a 3.0 comic vs. the slabbed price of a 3.0 comic, I don't know that the curve would necessarily have the same shape as for your condition 9.8 example.  In other words, would the slabbing premium for a $5,000.00 to $9,999.00 comic in 3.0 be twice that of a $50,000.00 to $99,999.99 comic in 3.0?  My prediction* is that slabbing low value comics in low grade gives a lot less "% juice" than slabbing a more valuable comic in exactly the same low grade.  

*(from a gut sense only... I have no data to back up my prediction, I admit that I could be completely wrong)

You're right on all counts here.  There is a ton of complicating factors.  Generally, slabbing a low end book adds little to nothing to the resale value.  3.0 and below is a good example.  If the book is a super key though, like Captain America Comics #1, the difference can be significant.  

I got hung up on the signed books but scarcity in grade can influence price too.  If 97 copies of a particular issue grade out at 9.0 or less, but there are 5 9.8s, 7 9.6s, 10 9.4s and 3 9.2s, the top 25 will bring a disproportionately higher price than if the grades were more evenly distributed and the multiplier goes out the window again.  It could also work the other way, if those 975 copies graded 9.4 and up but there were a 25 copies at 7.5 and below, those 25 wouldn't have the value projected by a multiplier that applies to the majority of other titles.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...